Ethiopia's aspiration to gain its own access to the sea is raising fears of conflict with neighboring Eritrea, which currently controls the coastline at the port of Assab. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia has reiterated an "irreversible demand" for a coastal port, citing the economic burden Ethiopia suffers by relying on Djibouti's ports for trade, amounting to $2 billion annually. Ethiopia is the most populous landlocked country with 120 million people, and having a port is seen as crucial for its economic development.
The historical background includes Eritrea's independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a long struggle, followed by multiple conflicts and a recent period of uneasy alliance during the northern Tigray region war. However, tensions have escalated again, with concerns heightened by Ethiopian military and intelligence officials' visits to border towns previously battlegrounds in older conflicts. Eritrea fears Ethiopia might try to seize the port of Assab by force.
Experts believe Ethiopia's current military challenges, including ongoing insurgencies in other regions, make a full-scale invasion unlikely for now. Both sides exhibit tense rhetoric, but there is also a stated preference from Abiy not to resort to war, with calls for peaceful resolution through diplomacy and international forums like the African Union. Eritrea has sought support from allies like Egypt, which has its own regional interests tied to the Red Sea and Nile River. The political context includes upcoming Ethiopian elections in 2026, which may influence tensions around the port issue.
While verbal hostilities persist, analysts largely doubt a full-scale war is imminent, emphasizing the legal and political challenges any military action would entail. Abiy maintains that Ethiopia will not remain landlocked but hopes to achieve this goal peacefully.
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