Ethiopia's top military commander, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, has warned that Egypt's growing military presence in Somalia poses a national security threat. He told Ethiopian lawmakers that foreign forces in Somalia—though officially cooperating—may have strategic intentions that could destabilize Ethiopia.
Key concerns:
- Egypt-Somalia military pact: Egypt signed a military cooperation agreement with Somalia in August 2024, allowing up to 10,000 Egyptian troops to be deployed. Half will operate under the African Union’s stabilization mission (AUSSOM), while the rest will be stationed under a bilateral arrangement.
- Weapons transfers: The agreement includes provisions for arms shipments, raising concerns about regional military buildup.
- Encirclement fears: Ethiopia suspects Egypt’s growing presence is part of a broader strategy to weaken Ethiopia, especially given tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River.
- Access to the sea: Ethiopia has expressed frustration over forces allegedly working to block its maritime access, further complicating regional dynamics.
Somali officials defend the pact, arguing that Egypt’s involvement aims to rebuild Somalia’s army and strengthen regional security. However, Ethiopia is reassessing its military posture in response to these developments.
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